It is no surprise that the Telegraph & Argus decided to publish an article for their Premium Subscribers with a headline that to the untrained eye gives the impression they have a definitive answer to the “will he won’t he” saga of Dion Pereira and Bradford City.
From the headline, some could be mislead into thinking he definitely won’t be joining the Bantams. Those who read the entire article could have come to the same conclusion, not based on anything Mark Hughes has said, but an opinion inserted by Simon Parker which read “with only five days to go before the transfer deadline, it appears to be a lost cause”, but there is just as much to say that with time ticking by, no news is good news for Bradford City.
What did Mark Hughes actually say? There’s nothing that says it is a lost cause, just that as it was before, it is going to take a few things to go our way if it is to happen.
Mark Hughes said “We placed our interest very early on in the window but Luton have every right to just wait and see what options there are for their player”, but we knew that. When Dion returned to the Hatters having impressed at Valley Parade, Nathan Jones will have wanted to see for himself whether Dion had improved both psychically and mentally to have a future at Kenilworth Road. And during pre-season he clearly did enough to convince him that he could be a different player to the one he expressed concerns about when he was out on loan and injured. The issue is that he isn’t convinced he is at the standard he needs to be to break into the starting line-up at Luton Town yet, so the next best thing is to get him playing week in week out in League One.
And again, what Mark Hughes had to say only served to confirm this “Our information is that they’ll be looking to place him in League One or higher”.
Having loaned out Carlos Mendes-Gomes to Fleetwood Town, you’d have expected that Dion Pereira wouldn’t have been far behind to grace League One. But so far, and based on reports about this issue, it seems there are no teams in that division that are able to meet the criteria for a loan move.
A big sticking point appears to be that Luton Town want guarantees that Dion Pereira will be a regular starter for the club he joins. And from their point of view for the development of a player who had so much technical ability this is totally understandable. But this begins to limit the clubs that can make such guarantees about a player who in reality has only made a handful of appearances in League Two, albeit making a very positive impact.
It is perhaps a bit lazy to simply conclude that the determination to loan Dion Pereira to a team in League One automatically rules Bradford City out as a destination. And the longer it drags on, the more it opens up the door for the Bantams to get in at the eleventh hour.
Even Mark Hughes, although doubtful about him returning, didn’t totally write it off “You never know, it may change but I think that’s where we are at the moment with where Luton see him playing this year”. He understands that Luton Town will be doing everything in their power to get Dion Pereira loaned out at the highest level they can, but minutes are going to be important in his development and should his playing time look likely to be limited in League One, there is the possibility they may consider a club in League Two. So if they’re unable to find a club in League One that can meet all of their main requirement, the Hatters are going to start to have to look at a Plan B. But what are the options available to Luton Town?
Option 1 – Lower Expectations from Loan to League One Clubs
Having held out as long as possible to get a Dion a loan on their terms, lowering their expectations is an option. But how important is game time to Dion and his development? Would it be better for him to get regular game time against lower quality opposition but still be regularly exposed to the rough and tumble that comes with EFL football along with staying sharp and match fit, or would Luton Town be satisfied with Dion Pereira getting a handful of games where he is exposed to better quality players? That is a decision that Jones may have to make in the coming days.
This would open up a few options for teams in League One to fit him into their match day squad where Peterborough United and Cambridge United could be potential moves.
Option 2 – Keep Dion at Luton Town as backup for injuries
This is perhaps the option that is the least attractive to Nathan Jones because even if he chooses to try again with League One clubs in the January transfer window there are no guarantees anything will have changed. There are no guarantees of him getting any action at Luton Town in the meantime and the more time that passes, the less desirable to clubs in League One he will become. Luton might bank on some sides in League One picking up injuries in areas that he could fill, but this would be relying on events outside their control.
Option 3 – Short Term Loan To League Two and Re-Assess in January
There are a few benefits to a short term loan to a League Two side if they cannot find a League One side to take him on loan. But I also suspect this will be in part financially motivated, as well as for development reasons. Loaning him out to a League Two club would probably also come with a demand that whoever takes him pays a decent percentage of his wage, something they’re in a position to negotiate as part of letting him go to League Two, which wasn’t the case last season due to Bradford City being the only club in the EFL that were willing to take him. But in terms of being an attractive proposition to clubs in the basement, Dion’s stock has certainly risen since then. Naturally the minimum expectation will be choosing a club that will pretty much guarantee him a start every match. It is then in the hands of Dion whether he can impress enough to convince League One clubs that he would be a regular starter for them for the rest of the season. It also keeps him sharp and match fit and gives him more exposure to competitive EFL football. So instead of losing a year of development potential, he will simply have remained at the same level for a few months longer than Luton Town ideally wanted.
Are the Bantams Preparing For A Loan?
This is where Bradford City appear to have laid a bit of ground work in anticipation of a late call from Luton Town asking if we are still interested in the services of Pereira. With the departure of Oscar Threlkeld to Oldham Athletic on loan until January, it could be that Mark Hughes has already taken the potential of this happening into consideration. Clearly not in the plans Hughes has for Bradford City, in an ideal world to make room in the wage budget, Threlkeld would have been sold to another club on a permeant deal. At the very least most people would be forgiven for thinking that if it was to be a loan deal it would be for the whole season, but neither of those things happened. Is there a reason? Here is my thoughts for what they’re worth from a business point of view.
We have to consider that Bradford City will want to claw back as much of his wage as possible allowing us to strengthen our squad. Perhaps Bradford City had a figure in mind that they wanted to free up for a particular incoming deal. It is possible that Oldham Athletic had the budget to contribute what City were asking, but only until January. If Bradford City have their eye on a player they are only able to get on a short term loan until January it works nicely for both clubs. Yes Oldham Athletic pay a bit more, but they reduce the risk with the length of the deal, and Bradford City free up just enough money to bring in a short term loan of their own.
At the very least it does look like Mark Hughes has neatly carved out a little space in the budget to allow for Dion Pereira to return should the situation arise.
Pereira Return To Bradford City Possible?
From Luton Town’s point of view, the League Two side that can cover his wage and regularly play him in League Two, and are happy for a short-term loan until January would be the next most attractive destination. And on this score, it puts Bradford City in a good position.
This doesn’t guarantee that Dion Pereira is returning to Bradford City, but it is another reason not to totally write it off. But I say this with as much caution as I possibly can, because it is still a very long way from being anything more than something that depends on things not going the way Luton Town hope they will.
And there is something, or someone that might be a reason that we are no longer the most attractive destination to send Dion Pereira in League Two, namely Scott Banks. If Luton Town do relent and loan Dion to a League Two side, the team that gets him are most likely going to have to meet some even stricter expectations. They will expect him to be in the starting line-up most weeks in the position that they want him to play at Luton Town. Crystal Palace will have no doubt given Mark Hughes a few demands of their own in regards to the development of Scott Banks and there could be a bit of a clash.
So in the absence of finding the right club for a season-long loan in League One, should the saga drag on into transfer deadline day, it wouldn’t be unrealistic for Dion Pereira to find himself playing in League Two until January Whether that will be with Bradford City is difficult to say, but another club closer to his home that might be able to meet the demands in terms of wage and guarantees of first team football is Crawley Town who might look to deploy him in place of James Tiley.
Whatever happens, it is going to be interesting to monitor what happens in the coming days and should it drag out to transfer deadline day, still worth keeping tabs on until we sign another player on loan.